Posted it themselves
“hormuz oil exports rebounding to pre-war levels = lost leverage for iran some color for why a possible deal is back in the news (and why trump isn’t interested in making it)”
On the record · Updated October 1, 2026
Ian Bremmer quotes
119 things Ian Bremmer said, verbatim, from July 24, 2026 to October 1, 2026, each linked to where it ran. Grouped by the story each one belongs to.
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Oct 1latest entry
More on the record
Ian Bremmer on The Middle East27
Posted it themselves
“bibi playing 100% to the home audience (israeli elections next month—and right now he’s losing)”
Posted it themselves
“do americans think the iran war is a mistake? 52%: yes 30%: no 18%: undecided - @inglobalaffairs”
on a poll of Americans' views on the Iran war
Posted it themselves
“any actor open to using their influence to try and end the iran war should be welcomed. whether that actor is china or india…i’m skeptical @cnbctv18news”
Posted it themselves
“americans very much aware they’re paying the price at the pump for trump’s war with iran ( @Ipsos )”
on gas prices tied to Trump's confrontation with Iran, per an Ipsos poll
Posted it themselves
“usa and iran back to trading strikes over the strait of hormuz. oil prices up around four percent, accordingly. six months and counting…”
Posted it themselves
“first us military strikes on iran in a month. economic “d-day” apparently not getting the job done.”
on US military strikes on Iran despite an economic pressure campaign
Posted it themselves
“next stop: deliver assessment of iran war to president trump.”
on a war assessment on Iran being delivered to President Trump
Posted it themselves
“nearly as credible as iran unconditionally surrendering (all caps notwithstanding)”
Posted it themselves
“maximum economic pressure on iran requires sanctions on chinese firms…and it’s very hard to imagine trump taking that step. because as he has learned, china will hit back.”
on Trump's reluctance to sanction Chinese firms trading with Iran
Posted it themselves
“crazy story. would be a crisis if president trump’s months of threats around iran war were considered credible or serious.”
Posted it themselves
“president trump can declare the strait of hormuz us territory just like he announced he’s putting a 20% tariff on all strait shipping. unclear why he continues to find value in making declarations of no consequence. unfortunate his advisors have no ability to prevent him.”
Posted it themselves
“someone should tell the israeli prime minister about pakistan (became a nuclear power in 1998)”
Posted it themselves
“saudi arabia, turkey, pakistan defense pact—in effect a core islamic alliance— is a direct response to us iran war and perception the united states can’t be relied on for regional security. (and, goes without saying, a very different direction in the region than the abraham accords)”
Posted it themselves
“president trump’s announcements notwithstanding, i see no circumstance where the united states is able to control the strait of hormuz. i’d love to be proven wrong about this.”
Posted it themselves
“the real red lines aren’t iranian military targets. they’re gulf energy infrastructure. desalination plants. airports. that’s what’s keeping trump from escalating. @gzeromedia”
Posted it themselves
“trump doesn’t want to escalate. iran knows it. the single biggest source of leverage tehran has right now. @gzeromedia”
Posted it themselves
“iranian leaders surely convinced at this point that president trump really (really really) doesn’t want to further escalate the war.”
Posted it themselves
“the danger of targeting iran’s energy/critical infrastructure is that the united states cannot adequately defend gulf infrastructure in return when the iranians strike it (and they will).”
on risks of US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure
Posted it themselves
“iranians are paying the greatest cost of the ongoing war… thousands killed by their own regime in january, thousands more killed in this war, and a new supreme leader just as capable and willing to repress his own people… under even worse economic conditions taking stock six months into this war with @tedtalks”
Posted it themselves
“perspective: if iran’s closure of the strait of hormuz is the largest oil supply move in history (13 million barrels per day), china’s import reduction is the second largest (5 million).”
Posted it themselves
“the houthis aren't just doing iran's bidding. they're pursuing their own negotiations, their own leverage, and their own war. @gzeromedia”
on the Houthis acting on their own agenda rather than just Iran's
Posted it themselves
“trump is betting economic pain will force iran to back down. tehran is betting the us won't tolerate the costs. @gzeromedia”
Posted it themselves
“talks with iran no more likely to succeed this week than before the latest round of us bombings. president trump still unwilling to compromise on control of the strait. not much change here until the costs go up.”
Posted it themselves
“or else... or else... or else... the iranians - correctly - see through empty us threats. the unwillingness to follow through on those threats is keeping a lid on how bad this war could get. but it also makes it more likely we'll continue to see major disruptions.”
on U.S. lack of follow-through on Iran threats risks escalation
Posted it themselves
“as of now, houthis are not trying to completely shut down bab el-mandeb. threats only directed at ships transiting saudi ports. fair amount of traffic is otherwise still moving through the strait.”
on Houthi blockade tactics and shipping movements
Posted it themselves
“zero saudi-linked tankers transiting bab el-mandeb since houthi blockade announcement. no houthi attacks to date…but a lot of caution.”
on Saudi tanker movements following Houthi blockade announcement
Ian Bremmer on Ukraine & Russia10
Posted it themselves
“putin’s escalation in ukraine, as shown by air raid alert frequency/duration in kyiv”
Posted it themselves
“putin’s (totally real) approval rating at 76% ahead of this weekend’s (totally fair) parliamentary elections.”
Posted it themselves
“four years into putin’s war, russia’s economy suddenly getting crushed by ukrainian counterstrikes”
on Russia's economy weakening under Ukrainian counterstrikes in the war's fifth year
Posted it themselves
“70% of russia’s gas stations ran out or gas or diesel last month. context for russian escalation in kyiv…and against nato.”
Posted it themselves
“european leaders call last month’s airport attack ‘state-sponsored terrorism’ by russia. first time we've seen that...clearly demands a response. offensive cyber and espionage are on the menu.”
Posted it themselves
“strange bedfellow for bessent in asheville. at the usa’s invitiation, russia makes an appearance at g20 finance summit for the first time since 2022, as attacks on kyiv continue.”
Posted it themselves
“it’s proving hard for the europeans to call out russia for direct military action against them because they aren’t prepared to take the actions in response that implies.”
on Europe hesitant to blame Russia for military provocations without being ready to retaliate
Posted it themselves
“lev shlosberg, deputy chairman of russia’s opposition party yabloko, sentenced to 11 years in prison for “discrediting” russian armed forces, having the temerity to say what many russian citizens think. to be fair, after two years of taking virtually zero territory, the russian military has done a much better job discrediting themselves than critics ever could.”
on a Russian opposition leader jailed 11 years for criticizing the war effort
Posted it themselves
“russian missiles into ukraine now at highest levels, putin’s response to ukraine bringing his war to his own country.”
Posted it themselves
“zelensky came to washington with something trump respects: momentum. @gzeromedia”
Ian Bremmer on China & the Pacific7
Posted it themselves
“the red carpet treatment for xi jinping doesn't go both ways. chatting w @cnn”
Posted it themselves
“us-china relationship hasn’t moved a bit from summit. two month extension on trade truce and some pandas. very little to see here other than the efforts to maintain near term stability.”
Posted it themselves
“trump meets xi on the tarmac. no other leader gets that treatment. let’s talk summit: @gzeromedia”
Posted it themselves
“trump is playing for november. xi is playing for the next twenty years. that mismatch is why this meeting will go so well. @gzeromedia”
Posted it themselves
“china navy now outnumbers usa fleet (quantity ≠ quality)”
on China's navy now outnumbering the US fleet in ship count
Posted it themselves
“the pax silica initiative could rebuild what the us neglected. it could also accelerate a two-system world. @gzeromedia”
Posted it themselves
“when i think of total control over the strait, i think of as many ships as the united states wants to get through can get through. would be big if true.”
on a claim of total US access through a strategic strait
Ian Bremmer on Foreign policy & the world33
Posted it themselves
“need to add “steve jobs” to rubio’s list of responsibilities after yesterday’s https:// america.gov launch”
Posted it themselves
“we’re past peak-trump (and the world knows it) @francoisf24 @france24”
on Trump's standing abroad, in a France 24 appearance
Posted it themselves
“#unga81 by the numbers: longest speech: usa/trump (5,203 words) shortest speech: nicaragua (574 words) artificial intelligence mentions: 116/194 (“super intelligence” mentions: 4/194) most mentions of artificial intelligence in a speech: albania (18), edging out the more ai savvy singaporeans (16)”
Posted it themselves
“at labour party conference, burnham announces uk-eu summit to explore new “options” for “long-term relationship” w/ europe… “brexit has done more harm than good””
on Burnham's Labour conference announcement of a UK-EU summit on Brexit
Posted it themselves
“trump’s foreign policy has been no bueno in the middle east… europe… canada… but plenty of wins in latin america. my thoughts w/ @iliacalderon @estasemananmas”
on Trump's foreign policy record across regions, from the Middle East to Latin America
Posted it themselves
“spoke with @katyturnbc about trump’s remarks at unga. very different from every president since the united states founded the united nations”
Posted it themselves
“trump at unga: “to the victor goes the spoils” that’s his approach to venezuela… iran… ai… and the exact opposite of why the united states set up the united nations after winning world war ii”
on Trump's UN speech applying a victor-take-spoils approach to Venezuela, Iran and AI
Posted it themselves
“a year ago, few countries dared cross trump. now canada, europe, china, iran, russia and others are all more willing to say no. that's the story heading into this year's unga. @gzeromedia”
Posted it themselves
“president trump’s greenland policy was among his most unpopular among americans (back in january it was even lower than his epstein policy: -40% vs -38%, per reuters/ipsos). it’s a relief and politically welcome for republicans that trump has shed that burden by backing away from implausible demands and taking a deal.”
on Trump's Greenland policy being deeply unpopular before he backed off his demands
Posted it themselves
“the danes were prepared to negotiate all the terms of the greenland agreement back in january. instead president trump created mistrust and weakened the long term relationship. i’m not suggesting that matters to the president—it’s not like he is particualry concerned about what happens when he’s no longer in office. but it is important for the interests of the united states.”
Posted it themselves
“the united states secures greenland agreement by negotiating constructively with denmark and greenland. denmark supported that approach back in january, a welcome development to see president trump come to the same conclusion.”
on the US, Denmark and Greenland reaching an agreement over Greenland
Posted it themselves
“joined @nprkelly to discuss what's behind canada's turn to the eu across the political spectrum, canada is unified in feeling deeply vulnerable... at the expense of its main ally @npratc”
Posted it themselves
“carney knows he'll be in office longer than trump has left. that math is starting to matter everywhere. @gzeromedia”
Posted it themselves
“when trump called himself the great unifier, i didn’t realize he was talking about canada”
on Trump's rhetoric versus tensions with Canada
Posted it themselves
“president trump deserves full credit for europe offering its first ever associate member status to canada. never would have happened without his efforts.”
on satirizing Trump's claimed credit for Canada's EU associate status offer
Posted it themselves
“escalation between saudi arabia and houthis: possible escalation between usa and iran: doubtful escalation between ukraine and russia: certain”
Posted it themselves
“alliances aren’t forever. neither is global reserve currency status. among the strongest interests of the united states is preserving both as long as possible.”
Posted it themselves
“the forever wars cost lives and money. and america its credibility as a leader. @gzeromedia”
Posted it themselves
“afd about to become the first far right party to win a state election since world war ii. big news in germany, deeply unwelcome for chancellor merz.”
Posted it themselves
“probably the most consequential german state-election result of the postwar era. afd now the dominant party in saxony-anhalt while the christian democrats have collapsed.”
Posted it themselves
“this week: russia escalates hybrid warfare on nato soil... as the usa invites a russian minister to the g20 dinner table ...and doubles down on wars (of the hot and tariff variety)”
Posted it themselves
“a growing number of world leaders expect to be in power well beyond the end of trump’s term (from putin and xi…to mbs and mbz…to carney and modi) and are acting accordingly.”
Posted it themselves
“americans have zero interest in picking a fight with canada, for generations the closest friend and ally the united states could hope to have.”
on US public sentiment toward a trade dispute with Canada
Posted it themselves
“hard to imagine anyone doing as much to unite french and english canadians as president trump.”
on Trump's effect on unity between French and English Canadians
Posted it themselves
“us-canada relations and us-europe relations have been permanently damaged. much can still be done to limit the scope of that damage, but it’s impossible to return to the trust and alignment of the previous alliances. china is the principal beneficiary.”
Posted it themselves
“i’ve never seen canadians—politically left, right and center—so angry with the united states as right now many americans don’t care or know why it matters. but long term the united states benefits greatly from deep and trusted international relationships. and none have been closer (and closely integrated) than us-canada”
on Canadian anger at the US straining a once-close alliance
Posted it themselves
“president trump doing his damnedest to antagonize another one of america’s closest allies. surprisingly good news for kim jong un, though.”
Posted it themselves
“part of my extended discussion with @rajshamani centered on india’s role today my take - india is in strongest overall geopolitical position of all the middle powers what that means for indians, and the world:”
Posted it themselves
“the uk is on their seventh prime minister in the last ten years. peru: hold my beer”
on UK political turnover compared with Peru's
Posted it themselves
“two wars now overlap. russia is helping iran. america is helping ukraine. but this is still not one war. @gzeromedia”
Posted it themselves
“i don’t accept the argument that if you cut foreign aid—even valuable, well targeted foreign aid (which some of usaid was)—you’re responsible for killing people. this should be obvious. so it will probably be controversial.”
Posted it themselves
“it’s extraordinary that a president who won election—twice—promising no new wars has for nearly six months been completely consumed by a new war entirely of his choosing.”
on president contradicting campaign promises against new wars
Posted it themselves
“americans’ opposition to the war in iran isn’t selfishness. it isn’t a lack of patriotism. it’s distrust in leadership.”
Ian Bremmer on National security & surveillance1
Posted it themselves
“if the washington post claims are false, how could the "leakers" have revealed classified information? it’s a mystery.”
on Ian Bremmer questioning denials of a Washington Post classified leak story
Ian Bremmer on Trade & tariffs7
Posted it themselves
“due congrats on uniting french and english canada, mr. president. truly a historic achievement.”
Posted it themselves
“76% of canadians agree with govt decision to cut off trade negotiations with the united states (angus reid).”
on Canadian public support for halting trade talks with the US
Posted it themselves
“a lot of democratic and republican governors will take strong exception. 19 us states trade more with ontario than they do with any foreign country (excepting canada, of course).”
Posted it themselves
“mark carney: the united states signs deals in pencil. if washington can rip up an agreement, why should anyone trust the next one? @gzeromedia”
on Mark Carney questioning US reliability in honoring agreements
Posted it themselves
“canada is the second largest trade partner of the united states. a fight between the two isn’t theater. @gzeromedia”
on tensions between the US and Canada as major trade partners
Posted it themselves
“to be fair, no less credible than the 20% toll announced a few weeks ago”
Posted it themselves
“it’s like the 20% toll on the strait. sad.”
on a 20% toll imposed on a strait
Ian Bremmer on Economy, jobs & inflation4
Posted it themselves
“us national debt: $40 trillion $30 trillion of that since obama was elected in 2008 $20 trillion since trump in 2016 one thing republicans and democrats can all agree on: increasing the deficit”
on growth of the US national debt across recent administrations
Posted it themselves
“hard to see gas prices coming down soon in the united states”
on the outlook for US gas prices
Posted it themselves
“america's national debt just hit $40 trillion. trump added $7.9t his first term, biden added $8.4t, trump's second term is already at $3.8t … and they say bipartisanship is dead.”
Posted it themselves
“$73 billion in additional fuel costs for americans since the start of the iran war…or $562 per household.”
Ian Bremmer on Government spending & shutdowns1
Posted it themselves
“americans’ top concern today: government”
on government being Americans' top current concern
Ian Bremmer on Climate & energy2
Posted it themselves
“wildfires on track to account for more deforestation globally than agriculture. unprecedented…and almost certainly the new normal.”
on wildfires overtaking agriculture as a driver of deforestation
Posted it themselves
“china giving cuba solar: 41 new solar parks in the last year, now 10% of cuba’s energy up from 3% in january.”
on China expanding solar power supply to Cuba
Ian Bremmer on Tech & AI20
Posted it themselves
“self-awareness does not (!) absolve ai companies from responsibility… or serve as an adequate development guardrail…”
on whether AI companies' self-awareness of risks excuses them from responsibility
Posted it themselves
“ai companies won't police themselves. they don't trust each other. and cooperation looks a lot like antitrust to washington. @gzeromedia”
on why AI companies are unlikely to regulate themselves or cooperate
Posted it themselves
“hard for the united states to maintain a global lead in artificial intelligence when most americans don’t think it will benefit them and don’t trust their leaders who tell them otherwise. getting the tech right and the people wrong is a recipe for failure.”
on public distrust threatening US AI leadership
Posted it themselves
“i don’t really care what we call ai. but i care a lot that the companies developing it have functional sovereignty, and that the american government doesn’t seem to be interested @maxfostercnn”
on AI developers needing independent sovereignty as government interest lags
Posted it themselves
“presumedly it’s now super intelligence on apple maps in the united states, artificial intelligence everywhere else..”
Posted it themselves
“ai doesn’t kill people. people kill people. when ai is outlawed, only outlaws will have ai. the only way to fight a bad guy with ai is a good guy with ai. brought to you by your friends at the national ai association.”
Posted it themselves
“p(doom) gets all the headlines. p(crisis) is what matters. virtually 100% chance ai supports a major crisis in the near term. @gzeromedia”
on the near-certain odds AI contributes to a major crisis soon
Posted it themselves
“2026: one oracle malaysia-based data center will have a third of europe’s ai computing power”
Posted it themselves
“for the next five years: my p(doom) is close to zero my p(ai causes social, economic, and national security challenges we aren’t remotely ready for) is 100% policy attention and resources should be deployed accordingly”
on AI posing serious social, economic and national security risks despite low existential risk
Posted it themselves
“ai use by americans dwarfing that of other countries: 21.4% of total traffic vs china’s 1.9%”
on US AI traffic share far outpacing China's
Posted it themselves
“if your p(doom) of 10% is a marketing ploy, pathetic but unsurprising. been there, done that. but if your p(doom) of 10% is what you really believe…and you don’t think anyone in power is taking you seriously...and you have resources…then the actions you might be willing to take to make people pay attention become dangerous and consequential.”
Posted it themselves
“ai: it's so dangerous to keep moving in this direction but if we don't others will before we do so we have to go full speed ahead to get there first.”
on the argument that AI development must race ahead due to competitive pressure
Posted it themselves
“the paperclip problem is no longer theoretical.”
Posted it themselves
“i've never seen a technology with more potential to advance humanity. i also recognize there's next to zero governance. that's an unsustainable combination. @gzeromedia”
Posted it themselves
“do i want a data center in my neighborhood? no. do i think the united states needs more data centers? yes.”
on weighing local opposition to data centers against the national need for more of them
Posted it themselves
“of course china can believe it—chinese bot farms have been posting content about data centers driving up energy costs. the sentiment is pre-existing and real (and widespread), but let’s not pretend the chinese have no clue…”
Posted it themselves
“texas now has put in place a temporary freeze on new data center connections to the power grid (to allow for project audits). hard to find politicians immune from present ai backlash in the united states.”
Posted it themselves
“ai isn’t going to stay inside national borders. the risks and opportunities are global. can we afford to treat ai as a zero-sum fight between the us and china? @gzeromedia”
Posted it themselves
“ai moves faster than diplomacy. and the us and china are racing for technological dominance… @gzeromedia”
Posted it themselves
“the us and china are talking more. trading more. fighting less. but underneath the calm, the ai race is accelerating. @gzeromedia”
Ian Bremmer on Campaigns & elections2
Posted it themselves
“brazil votes sunday. lula vs. bolsonaro. closest election brazil has seen in years. @gzeromedia”
on Brazil's Sunday election between Lula and Bolsonaro
Posted it themselves
“the bullest of markets for billionaire spending in us elections”
Ian Bremmer on The presidency & national symbols3
Posted it themselves
“george washington rejected efforts to put his face on a coin—that was what kings did, not the leader of newly created republic. a useful reminder as the united states celebrates its 250th.”
on Washington refusing his image on currency, as the US marks its 250th anniversary
Posted it themselves
“google goes along with trump “lake america” pronouncement. apple thinking longer term.”
Posted it themselves
“google maps maintaining lake ontario for searches outside the united states. let’s see if apple joins them.”
Ian Bremmer on Sports & culture2
Posted it themselves
““having listened carefully to all the views, it has become clear that the project has created divisions of a nature that, regardless of the level of support, are no longer in the interest of the objective set out in the first place.” - gianni infantino, weenie”
Posted it themselves
“the g-zero hits football. just an extraordinary statement from all 55 national associations of uefa (even russia and ukraine) boycotting the world cup.”
Further reading
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In their own words
The Power of Crisis (opens Bookshop.org)
Ian Bremmer · 2022
Political scientist and Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer examines pandemics, climate change and technological disruption as global crises and argues about what cooperation could address them.
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