In their words · Updated July 27, 2026
11 verified quotes on the record, July 24, 2026 to July 27, 2026. Every one is a character-for-character copy from its source; the lens colors mark the outlets and channels that carried the words, never the person.
Posted it themselves Jul 26
“I don't think we have good ways to distinguish "AI discovers things" from "humans discover things, with help from expertly directed use of powerful software," but I think there's probably a bias toward classifying things that are really in category #2 as being in category #1.”
Posted on @NateSilver538 Center / Nonpartisan @NateSilver538 on X ›
Posted it themselves Jul 26
“To me, one of the best parts of AI programming is routinizing tedious parts of the job and overcoming small hurdles in my technical knowledge, freeing up time for creative, value-added work and hypothesis testing. So maybe that can increase the rate of human-inspired discovery.”
Posted on @NateSilver538 Center / Nonpartisan @NateSilver538 on X ›
Posted it themselves Jul 26
“But I still think there's a disconnect between claims of imminent AGI, and the comparatively few truly creative breakthroughs by *non-experts* using AI, especially given the huge amount of resources directed toward these sorts of problems.”
Posted on @NateSilver538 Center / Nonpartisan @NateSilver538 on X ›
Posted it themselves Jul 24
“Just a very consistent Claude thing where it will extremely confidently blame user error when there's a bug it introduced. Thought it might be an Opus thing but it's happening with Fable too.”
on Claude, Opus, and Fable models blaming user error for introduced bugs
Posted on @NateSilver538 Center / Nonpartisan @NateSilver538 on X ›
Posted it themselves Jul 24
“I guess this example is boring, but in this case, it's failing to flag various Senate races that occurred in off-cycles (e.g. Alabama 2017) and which require special handling. It's "almost [certain]" they're not in the input files when they are! This kind of thing happens A LOT.”
Posted on @NateSilver538 Center / Nonpartisan @NateSilver538 on X ›
Posted it themselves Jul 24
“This is not even remotely complex code. These tools are still very net helpful. But it's hard for me to believe we're on the brink of some self-reinforcing AGI improvement loop when they completely lack any sort of roughly Bayesian inner worldview for self-diagnosing problems.”
Posted on @NateSilver538 Center / Nonpartisan @NateSilver538 on X ›
Posted it themselves Jul 25
“Biden was helped by SC in 2020 because it totally reversed the media narrative at a key juncture in the primary. Of course, it was a great state for him all along, especially with no Black candidates left. But it felt like a huge W because he'd been left for dead by the media.”
Posted on @NateSilver538 Center / Nonpartisan @NateSilver538 on X ›
Posted it themselves Jul 25
“Morris Katz is probably a brilliant strategist. But I thought he came across as dubious in the Ezra Klein interview on the question of what the campaign knew when and frankly kind of scummy for not apologizing to Genevieve McDonald.”
on Morris Katz denying prior knowledge of sexual assault allegation
Posted on @NateSilver538 Center / Nonpartisan @NateSilver538 on X ›
Posted it themselves Jul 25
“Like Katz acting like the sexual assault allegation totally blindsided the campaign. Not only was it extremely widely rumored but the accuser was actually named in a NYT story weeks earlier alleging unsettling conduct but declining to go further.”
on sexual assault allegation was widely known before official disclosure
Posted on @NateSilver538 Center / Nonpartisan @NateSilver538 on X ›
Posted it themselves Jul 24
“Indeed, the smart thing to do is to look at margin relative to the national environment rather than binary win/loss. The Democratic establishment is not looking at things this way. It's hard to escape the inference that they're just not very bright.”
on Democratic electoral strategy and evaluation
Posted on @NateSilver538 Center / Nonpartisan @NateSilver538 on X ›
Posted it themselves Jul 27
“It's kind of striking how, apart from Iran, most of the Trump-related stories this summer have been boring and dumb (reflection pool, White House Correspondents' Dinner) or kind of funny (FIFA), maybe we're moving on from him being the central figure in American politics.”
on trivial Trump news displacing his political centrality
Posted on @NateSilver538 Center / Nonpartisan @NateSilver538 on X ›
This file holds only what Nate Silver said in coverage the daily brief documented, so it grows with the news; it is a verified record, not a biography. Checkable claims here are tracked to resolution on the claim ledger. If a quote you saw elsewhere is missing, it did not pass verification against a source we hold.
In their words
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